Why the 2020 Presidential Polls Show a Trump Landslide Victory

If you were to believe the news and the polls, you’d think that Joe Biden is cruising to victory…no cruising is too weak of a word. There is no precedent for how powerful the Biden juggernaut has become, actually. Nixon’s Landslide? Reagan? Obama? pffftt. Not even close.  Trump’s out there trying his breast, having huge rallies and getting nominated for Nobel Prizes but it’s just not enough…


Come on…Man! Does it feel like America is kissing Biden back?

via GIPHY

No, of course not.  It’s more like Biden is the candidate of the democrat’s base and donor class. It’s like only the true believers will vote Biden.  What they believe truly in is up for debate since Biden has said we don’t deserve to know that he’ll pack the court if he were to accidentally win the election.

It’s basically 2020’s version of Waffle’s 2004 line about voting for before voting against it.

Meanwhile, Trump gets motorcades and parades


while some of the democrat party’s victim sideshow also rans pull in almost a dozen supporters…


so, yeah. what is going on here?

first, the pollsters may be a bit spoiled from 3 presidential election cycles with historic-ish democrat candidates. Two times with obama and once with Madame Secretary Senator Hillary Clinton, the angel of death herself. These three races may justify them using heavily democrat voter friendly voter samples. It’s still 2008, right, and Obama’s running…so surely Biden will get the same Obama turnout…um no.


Secondly, Trump’s 2016 win was itself tainted by Gary Johnson. The Libertarian candidate somehow got 4.5 million votes nationwide. Were these anti-trump votes, anti-hillary votes or what? Add in that Dr. Jill Stein got about 1.5 million votes and you see that Trump spotted Hillary about 3 million voters in the popular vote. Consider that in 2004, the Libertarian Party got 400,000 votes. Clearly, a lot of these 6 million total votes were anti-Hillary votes that would have voted GOP if Trump was a more normal candidate. Now Trump is a more normal candidate, he has 4 years of success under his belt.   Trump should get those Johnson voters back.

The return of the Johnson Libertarian voter means that any model claiming to be based on 2016 (and Hillary’s alleged popular vote win) is likewise skewed.

Third, the polls don’t make no fucking sense. Trump is 90+% popular with GOP voters. 56% of voters feel better than they did a year ago. Trump’s realistic job approval is nearing 48-50% which was better than Obama’s. These are the fundamentals of a re-elected president.  The polls would make sense if Trump lost his base or if Biden was a groundswell candidate, not the default Mr. Generic Democrat candidate.  You could say Biden is the desultory candidate like Bob Dole or John Kerry. People that were just there. Speaking of just there, Mitt Romney had a huge voter enthusiasm problem among the right.  There was, during the 2012 campaign, a lot of republicans lamented that Mitt was not one of us.  This apparently led to a depressed turnout for Mitt.

The same problem exists for Biden, he’s not Bernie.  The Bernie bros care not for Biden. He’s not one of them.

What it means. The democrat oversamples are not realistic at all. Trump’s base support is enthused unlike anything since at least 2004. The polls might be skewing at least 10 points more for Biden than they should.

fourth, we got the Johnny Rotten voter demographic.

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